Estimating lake ice thickness in Central Ontario

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Remote Sensing
• Climatology

Background:

• Lakes are vital Canadian geographical features influencing regional climate and winter activities.
• Accurate lake ice thickness data is underreported, especially in Central Ontario's temperate regions.

Purpose of the Study:

• Evaluate temperature models and RADARSAT-2 for estimating lake ice thickness in Central Ontario.
• Provide insights into the region's long-term ice thickness variability.

Main Methods:

• Utilized previously developed temperature models and RADARSAT-2 data.
• Employed the ALS Environmental Science Shallow Water Ice Profiler (SWIP) for model validation.
• Applied optimized temperature models to a long-term temperature record.

Main Results:

• Temperature models demonstrated high accuracy for ice growth (RMSE 2.3 cm, R > 0.9) and decay (RMSE 2.1 cm, R > 0.97).
• RADARSAT-2 yielded R2 values of 0.6 but high RMSE of 11.7 cm, indicating potential uncertainty.
• Analysis of long-term temperature data revealed a trend of ice cover thinning by 0.81 cm per decade.

Conclusions:

• Temperature-based models are reliable for estimating lake ice thickness in Central Ontario.
• RADARSAT-2 shows promise but requires further investigation for mid-latitude lake ice applications.
• A significant long-term trend of decreasing lake ice thickness was identified.