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Persistence of false paradigms in low-power sciences.
George A Akerlof1, Pascal Michaillat2
1McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057; pascalmichaillat@brown.edu gaa53@georgetown.edu.
Summary
False scientific paradigms can persist due to scientist homophily, hindering progress. Increasing the power (probability of rejecting false paradigm adherence) is crucial for scientific convergence to the true paradigm.
Area of Science:
- Scientific progress
- Paradigm shifts
- Sociology of science
Background:
- Scientific communities often face challenges with persistent false paradigms.
- Understanding the mechanisms of paradigm persistence is key to scientific advancement.
Observation:
- Tenured scientists exhibit homophily, favoring candidates aligned with their existing paradigms.
- A model is developed to analyze paradigm persistence and scientific progress.
Findings:
- Low statistical power, defined as the probability of rejecting adherence to a false paradigm, allows false paradigms to prevail due to homophily.
- Convergence to a true paradigm is facilitated by an increase in statistical power.
Implications:
- Lack of empirical evidence or reluctance to use it can lead to low statistical power, hindering scientific progress.
- Strategies to increase statistical power are essential for overcoming entrenched false paradigms and fostering scientific discovery.
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