AIDS: a global problem

AIDS has emerged as one of the foremost infectious disease epidemics of the twentieth century. This review summarizes the magnitude of the AIDS problem and the frequency of infection with the causative agent, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The natural history of HIV infection suggests that a high proportion of persons still healthy but infected with HIV will become immunosuppressed over the next decade. These persons are capable of transmitting HIV to others as a venereal disease as well as by blood and blood products. Thus, the epidemic will grow not only because more cases will appear among persons already infected but also because new infections will occur. However, the incidence of new HIV infections within the homosexual community is already slowing because of changing behavior after the advent of AIDS. The spread of HIV infection within the heterosexual community will probably never be as extensive as that in the homosexual community during the early 1980s because of different behavior patterns. Containment of the epidemic will require an effective vaccine as well as changes in personal life style, but it is unlikely these developments will eradicate HIV infection as a public health problem.