Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Model Based on Poultry Transport Network in China
Juping Zhang1,2, Wenjun Jing1,2, Wenyi Zhang3
1Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China.
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
|December 12, 2018
Summary
The poultry transport network is crucial for controlling avian influenza A (H7N9) spread. Strategies like closing live-poultry markets can reduce human infections.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Veterinary Public Health
Background:
- Avian influenza A (H7N9) poses a significant threat to poultry and human health.
- Understanding transmission dynamics is essential for effective control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spread of avian influenza A (H7N9) from poultry to humans.
- To evaluate the role of the poultry transport network in disease transmission.
- To identify key intervention points for reducing human infections.
Main Methods:
- Construction of an avian influenza transmission model incorporating the poultry transport network.
- Analysis of threshold dynamics, including basic reproduction number and equilibrium points.
- Numerical simulations to assess the impact of poultry movement and market interventions.
Main Results:
- The poultry transport network significantly influences the prevalence of avian influenza A (H7N9).
- Specific conditions for the existence and stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined.
- Numerical simulations demonstrated the impact of poultry locations on disease spread.
Conclusions:
- Closing retail live-poultry markets can be an effective control measure.
- Preventing backyard poultry from entering live-poultry markets is a feasible strategy to reduce human infections.
- Targeting specific nodes within the poultry transport network is vital for disease control.
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