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Model that predicted death or disabilities in premature infants was valid at seven years of age

Salvador Piris Borregas1, María José Torres Valdivieso1, Cristina Martín-Arriscado1

  • 112 de Octubre University Hospital, Madrid, Spain.

Acta Paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992)
|December 12, 2018
PubMed

Insights

A validated model predicts poor outcomes in premature infants by assessing bronchopulmonary dysplasia, brain injuries, and retinopathy of prematurity. Having two or more conditions significantly increases the risk of late death or disability.

Area of Science:

  • Neonatal Medicine
  • Pediatric Outcomes Research
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Premature infants face significant risks of long-term health issues.
  • Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), brain injuries, and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) are common neonatal morbidities.
  • Predicting late death or disability in this population is crucial for early intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To validate a prognostic model for predicting seven-year outcomes in premature infants.
  • To assess the individual and combined prognostic contributions of BPD, brain injuries, and ROP.
  • To identify key morbidities associated with late death or disability.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study at a neonatal unit.
  • Logistic regression model applied to estimate prognostic contributions.
  • Analysis of a cohort of 1001 premature infants with data from 1991-2008.

Main Results:

  • Severe ROP (OR 3.17) and BPD (OR 1.52) were strongly associated with poor neurodevelopment.
  • The combination of two neonatal morbidities increased the risk of poor outcomes (OR 4.44).
  • The prognostic model's performance varied between different time subcohorts.

Conclusions:

  • A prognostic model incorporating BPD, brain injuries, and ROP can predict poor outcomes at seven years.
  • The presence of at least two of these three morbidities indicates a high risk.
  • This model aids in identifying high-risk premature infants for targeted follow-up.
Abstract

Keywords:
DeathDisabilityNeonatal intensive care unitNeonatal neurodevelopmentPrematurity

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