PANCREATIC CANCER IN BRAZIL: MORTALITY TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS UNTIL 2029

Pancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world.

Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029.

Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression.

Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure.

Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuated.