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Suicid risk in mood disorders - can we better prevent suicide than predict it?
Zoltán Rihmer1, Xénia Gonda, Péter Döme
1Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Semmelweis University, Faculty of Medicine, Budapest, Hungary,
Abstract:
The risk of suicidal behaviour in major mood disorders is an inherent phenomenon and it strongly relates to the presence and severity of depressive episode. However, since the majority of mood disorder patients never commit or attempt suicide, special clinical characteristics of the illness as well as some personality, familial, psycho-social and demographic factors should also play a contributory role. Considering the clinically explorable suicide risk factors - discussed in this paper - in patients with major mood disorders, suicidal behaviour is predictable with a relatively good chance. As suicidal behaviour frequently develops later in the course of mood disorders, successful treatment of initially nonsuicidal major depressives and bipolar patients can prevent the later developing suicidal behaviour. This phenomenon could be called as "hidden suicide prevention". It means that preventing suicide is more easy than to predict it.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.

