Deconstructing the Pharmacovigilance Hype Cycle

Data science is making increasing contributions to pharmacovigilance. Although the technical innovation of these works are indisputable, efficient progress in real-world pharmacovigilance signal detection may be hampered by corresponding technology life cycle effects, with a resulting tendency to conclude that, with large enough datasets and intricate algorithms, "the numbers speak for themselves," discounting the importance of clinical and scientific judgment. A practical consequence is overzealous declarations regarding the safety or lack of safety of drugs. We describe these concerns through a critical discussion of key results and conclusions from case studies selected to illustrate these points.