Survival predictors in coronary artery disease. Medical and surgical comparisons

Linear discriminant function analysis was used to test the independent prognostic value of nine variables in patients with coronary artery diseaase. For 68 medically treated patients who met the criteria for inclusion in the discriminant function analysis, the most reliable predictor of 2-year survival status was the left ventricular ejection fraction. The prognostic value of the ejection fraction was not improved by the addition of the number of vessels diseased. Comparisons of the survival of 130 medical and 284 surgical patients were made using subsets based on the ejection fraction. When the ejection fraction was greater than or equal to 50%, the probability of 4-year survival was high for both medical (91%) and surgical (96%) groups. When the ejection fraction was less than 25%, the probability of 2-year survival was low in both groups. However, for patients with ejection fraction 25 through 49%, the surgical patients had a better chance (P less than 0.05) for a 3-year survival (89%) than did medical patients (68%). This study emphasizes the prognostic significance of the left ventricular ejection fraction, which should be considered in any comparison of survival in medically and surgically treated patients.