Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: approaches and priorities for development

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Earth System Science
• Agricultural Science

Background:

• Global agriculture significantly impacts climate, contributing nearly 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Modern agriculture demands substantial resources (fertilizer, water, land) and presents uncertainties in climate interactions.
• Agriculture is increasingly explored as a carbon sink, with a focus on sustainable intensification.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review current approaches for representing agriculture in Earth System Models (ESMs).
• To highlight identified agriculture-climate interactions, uncertainties, and model limitations.
• To suggest future research directions for improving agricultural representations in ESMs.

Main Methods:

• Review of diverse ESM approaches, from idealized representations to coupled climate-crop models.
• Analysis of modeling efforts to identify robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses.
• Identification of uncertainties and limitations in current ESM agricultural components.

Main Results:

• ESMs increasingly incorporate agricultural land-use and management, crucial for climate forcing.
• Modeling reveals significant agriculture-climate interactions, including energy balance and biogeochemical cycling.
• Existing models show limitations in representing complex processes like irrigation and nutrient cycling.

Conclusions:

• Coordinated assessments and benchmarking are vital for advancing ESM agricultural representations.
• Future model development should prioritize incorporating irrigation and detailed biogeochemical cycling.
• Further research is needed to address critical questions in agriculture-climate feedback modeling.