Prognostic Nomogram Associated with Longer Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Patients

Better understanding of survival factors in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) could help physicians and patients schedule therapeutic interventions. We conducted a study to evaluate the predictive factors associated with longer survival and construct prognostic nomogram in ALS patients. A total of 553 ALS patients were enrolled and divided into 2 groups: a training set and a validation set. Risk factors for survival were identified using logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram created by R program was performed to predict the probability of longer survival in the training set; then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied to assess predictive value of the nomogram model. The median survival time was 3.2 years for all patients. Multivariate analyses revealed that age of onset, rate of disease progression, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, body mass index, creatinine, creatine kinase (CK), and non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) were independent predictors of longer survival. A nomogram based on the above seven predictive factors was developed to predict the possibility of longer survival. The ROC curve of the nomogram demonstrated good discrimination ability with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96) in the validation set. In ALS, serum CK, creatinine and HbA1c levels at baseline were independent biomarkers of longer survival. The prognostic nomogram model that integrated all significant independent factors for those who survived longer than 3 years provides an effective way to predict the probability of longer survival and can help doctors evaluate the disease progression and give personalized treatment recommendations.