Liver Transplant Waitlist Outcomes and the Allocation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Model for End-Stage Liver Disease
E K Tan1, B K P Goh1, S Y Lee1
1Department of Hepato-pancreato-biliary and Transplant Surgery, Singapore General Hospital, Bukit Merah, Singapore.
Background:
Organ scarcity continues to be the main problem limiting the number of liver transplants performed. Outcomes of patients waitlisted for an organ in an Asian country with low organ donation rate have not been well evaluated. Our current policy of allocating 15 exception points to patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to render them competitive for a transplant also requires review.
Methods:
The waiting list registry and the organ transplant registry of a single institution in Asia were reviewed from December 2005 to June 2016 for all patients who underwent liver transplantation. Patient characteristics and outcomes of waitlist dropouts were evaluated. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 20.0.
Results:
One hundred seventy-three patients were waitlisted for a deceased donor liver-only transplant. The most common etiology of liver disease was hepatitis B, followed by cholestatic diseases. Approximately half of the patients had HCC (45.6%). Priority listing for transplant comprised 15.6% of cases. Median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) at listing was 15, and median waiting time to transplant was 17 weeks (interquartile range = 6.5-43.5). Overall, 89 (51.4%) patients underwent liver transplantation and 68 (39.3%) dropped out. For patients with HCC, the most common cause of dropout was progression beyond University of California San Francisco transplant criteria (62.5%). The cumulative incidence of dropout at 3 months among patients with HCC who received exception MELD scores was 11%. This was higher than those listed with physiologic MELD of 14-16 points (7%) but lower than those with 17-19 points (16%).
Conclusions:
Hepatitis B-related liver disease and HCC comprise the majority of patients listed for liver transplant. Dropout rates are high and this is due to the lack of donor organs. The current policy of allocating 15 exception MELD points to patients with HCC within transplant criteria may underestimate the dropout risk of patients with HCC in our population.
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