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Effect of active case finding on dengue control: Implications from a mathematical model.

Indrajit Ghosh1, Pankaj Kumar Tiwari2, Joydev Chattopadhyay1

  • 1Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700 108, India.

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|December 25, 2018
PubMed
Summary

Active case finding (ACF) is crucial for dengue control in India. Integrating ACF for both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals alongside vector control significantly reduces dengue transmission.

Keywords:
Dengue feverEpidemic modelIndiaParameter estimationSensitivity analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Dengue infections in India necessitate re-evaluation of current control strategies.
  • Effective dengue management requires understanding the impact of interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and analyze a compartmental model assessing active case finding's impact on dengue transmission.
  • To study the local and global dynamics of dengue with active case finding as a control strategy.

Main Methods:

  • Development and analysis of a compartmental dengue model.
  • Sensitivity analysis to evaluate parameter effects on disease dynamics.
  • Model calibration using yearly dengue case data from eight Indian states.

Main Results:

  • Decreased mosquito biting rates, increased hospitalization/notification rates, and higher mosquito death rates are key.
  • Active case finding for both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals significantly reduces disease prevalence.
  • Active case finding for symptomatic individuals shows a substantial effect, but asymptomatic cases are also critical.

Conclusions:

  • Active case finding for both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals is vital for dengue reduction.
  • Integrated strategies including personal protection and mosquito control are essential for rapid dengue case decline in India.