Demographic processes limit upward altitudinal range expansion in a threatened tropical palm

Understanding the factors that determine species' range limits is a key issue in ecology, and is fundamental for biodiversity conservation under widespread global environmental change. Elucidating how altitudinal variation affects demographic processes may provide important clues for understanding the factors limiting current and future species distributions, yet population dynamics at range limits are still poorly understood. Here, we tested the hypothesis that lower abundance at a species' upper altitudinal range limit is related to lower vital rates. We compared the dynamics of two populations of the tropical palm Euterpe edulis, located near and at the edge of its altitudinal limit of distribution in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Data from four annual censuses, from 2012 to 2015, were used. We used matrix population models to estimate asymptotic population growth rates and the elasticity values for the vital rates of the two populations of E. edulis. Life table response experiments were used to compare population performance by measuring the contribution of each vital rate to population growth rates. Population growth rates were not significantly different from one in either population, indicating that both populations were stable during the study period. However, the abundance of all ontogenetic stages was lower at the altitudinal range limit, which was related to decreases in some vital rates, especially fecundity. Additionally, there were higher elasticity values for the survival of immatures and reproductive individuals, compared to all other vital rates, in both populations. Synthesis. Our results show that even a small-scale environmental variation near range limits is sufficient to drive changes in the demography of this threatened palm. A minor increase in elevation approaching the limit of altitudinal distribution may reduce environmental suitability and affect population vital rates, thus contributing to setting upper altitudinal range limits for plants.