[The definition of heat-wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China]

Objective: To identify the definition of heat wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China. Methods: Daily mortality (from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention) and meteorological data (from National Meteorological Information Center in China) from 66 counties with a population of over 200 000 were collected from 2006-2011. With the consideration of climate type and administrative division, China was classified as seven regions. Firstly, distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality. Secondly, a multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects to explore the region-specific temperature threshold and the duration for definition of heat wave. Results: We defined regional heat wave of Northeast, North, Northwest, East, Central and Southwest China as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperature higher than or equal to the P(64), P(71), P(85), P(67), P(75) and P(77) of warm season (May to October) temperature, respectively, while the thresholds of temperature were 21.6, 23.7, 24.3, 25.7, 28.0 and 25.3 ℃. The heat wave in South China was defined as five or more consecutive days with daily mean temperature higher than or equal to the P(93) (30.4 ℃) of warm season (May to October) temperature. Conclusion: The region-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide local government with the guidance of establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems to address the negative health outcomes due to heat wave.