Forecasting model to assess the potential of secondary lead production from lead acid battery scrap

Lead acid battery (LAB) scrap management is an important issue both environmentally and economically. The recovery of lead from battery scrap leads to a reduction in negative impacts of lead mining, as well as making the battery production cycle environmentally friendly. This work aims to propose a forecasting model for lead generation from LAB scrap based on time series modeling that uses data regarding after-market of batteries and new batteries produced for new cars. In order to illustrate the applicability of the new proposal, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. The main results show that at least 1% of LAB scrap from light vehicles have unknown or improper destinations; the efficiency of the recycling process in Brazil is still low, resulting in lead losses close to 4.5%; the lack of a sectorial agreement between the official battery market and the government concerning the reverse logistics of LAB scrap leads to a lack of precise data on the amount of LAB scrap generated and its final destination. Moreover, the economic importance of lead recycling and logistics of the secondary market are also discussed, with a focus on the dangers of illegal recycling.