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Correcting Judgment Correctives in National Security Intelligence.

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  • 1Intelligence Group, Intelligence, Influence and Collaboration Section, Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Current intelligence analysis tradecraft norms lack scientific grounding, potentially harming product quality. Research suggests a need for evidence-based practices and validity testing to improve intelligence analysis.

Keywords:
corrective actiondebiasingerror managementintelligence analysisjudgment and decision makingorganizational policies

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Intelligence Studies

Background:

  • Intelligence analysis tradecraft norms are influenced by prominent figures, not empirical validation.
  • Existing practices may not be optimally grounded in judgment and decision-making science.
  • Prevalence of "common sense" over systematic testing of training and aids.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To hypothesize how current intelligence analysis best practices might decrease analytic product quality.
  • To identify specific threats to accuracy within current tradecraft.
  • To advocate for evidence-based approaches in intelligence analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Review of scientific literature on judgment and decision-making.
  • Formulation of hypotheses regarding tradecraft effectiveness.
  • Analysis of potential biases and measurement errors in intelligence interpretation and communication.

Main Results:

  • Current tradecraft may fail to address fundamental threats like measurement error in data interpretation and communication.
  • One-directional bias warnings may be less effective than shifting cognitive thresholds, potentially creating mirror-image biases.
  • Existing training may inadvertently foster over-confidence or under-confidence.

Conclusions:

  • Intelligence tradecraft norms require rigorous scientific validation.
  • Current practices may inadvertently reduce analytic accuracy.
  • Increased funding for testing the efficacy of intelligence analysis techniques is warranted.