Performance of Antigen Concentration Thresholds for Attributing Fever to Malaria among Outpatients in Angola

The density of malaria parasites is a key determinant of whether an infected individual develops fever. While the pyrogenic threshold for malaria parasite density has been well studied, there are no analogous data on the antigen levels associated with fever during infection. Samples from 797 afebrile and 457 febrile outpatients from two provinces in Angola with known concentrations of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), aldolase, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) antigens were analyzed by Bayesian latent class modeling to attribute malarial etiology to the fevers and to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of different antigen thresholds for detection of malaria fevers. Among patients with aldolase or LDH levels detectable with a bead-based assay, the concentrations of these two antigens did not differ between afebrile and febrile patients. In contrast, the concentrations of HRP2 were substantially higher in febrile HRP2-positive patients than in afebrile HRP2-positive patients. When HRP2 concentrations were considered, the malaria-attributable fractions of fever cases were 0.092 in Huambo Province and 0.39 in Uíge Province. Diagnostic tests detecting HRP2 with limits of detection (LODs) in the range of 3,000 to 10,000 pg/µl would provide ideal sensitivity and specificity for determination of malarial etiology among febrile persons.