A Dynamical Bifurcation Model of Bipolar Disorder Based on Learned Expectation and Asymmetry in Mood Sensitivity

Bipolar disorder is a common psychiatric dysfunction characterized by recurring episodes of mania and depression. Despite its prevalence, the causes and mechanisms of bipolar disorder remain largely unknown. Recently, theories focusing on the interaction between emotion and behavior, including those based on dysregulation of the so-called behavioral approach system (BAS), have gained popularity. Mathematical models built on this principle predict bistability in mood and do not invoke intrinsic biological rhythms that may arise from interactions between mood and expectation. Here we develop and analyze a model with clinically meaningful and modifiable parameters that incorporates the interaction between mood and expectation. Our nonlinear model exhibits a transition to limit cycle behavior when a mood-sensitivity parameter exceeds a threshold value, signaling a transition to a bipolar state. The model also predicts that asymmetry in response to positive and negative events can induce unipolar depression/mania, consistent with clinical observations. We analyze the model with asymmetric mood sensitivities and show that large unidirectional mood sensitivity can lead to bipolar disorder. Finally, we show how observed effects of lithium- and antidepressant-induced mania can be explained within the framework of our proposed model.