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Feasible future global scenarios for human life evaluations
Christopher Barrington-Leigh1, Eric Galbraith2,3,4
1Institute for Health and Social Policy; and School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, H3A1A3, QC, Canada. Chris.Barrington-Leigh@McGill.ca.
Future human well-being may see modest gains from economic factors. However, non-material elements like social support and fairness will critically shape global life satisfaction by 2050.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Psychology
- Economics
Background:
- Subjective well-being varies significantly across nations, predictable by socio-economic factors.
- Future projections of global life evaluations have not been previously estimated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate feasible future projections of self-reported life evaluations to 2050.
- To assess the impact of socio-economic and non-material variables on future well-being.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical trends in proxy variables (economic and non-material) to constrain future projections.
- Modeled potential changes in life evaluations up to the year 2050.
Main Results:
- Projected macroeconomic changes suggest modest improvements in global average life evaluations.
- Scenarios based on non-material factors indicate a wide range of potential future well-being outcomes.
- Future global life evaluations could range from the top 15% to the bottom 25% of current country rankings.
Conclusions:
- Non-material factors (social support, freedom, fairness) are critical determinants of future human well-being.
- Policy and societal shifts focusing on non-material aspects are essential for enhancing global life satisfaction.
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