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Complications and risk factors for severe outcome in children with measles
Andrea Lo Vecchio1, Andrzej Krzysztofiak2, Carlotta Montagnani3
1Department of Translational Medical Sciences - Section of Pediatrics, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy.
Insights
Severe measles outcomes in children are linked to organ complications like pancreatitis and encephalitis, not age or prior conditions. C-reactive protein (CRP) levels can predict severe measles risk.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Severe measles outcomes are understudied in high-income nations.
- Identifying risk factors for severe measles is crucial for timely intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate risk factors for severe measles outcomes in hospitalized children.
- To define severe outcomes as long-lasting sequelae, intensive care admission, or death.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective study of 249 children hospitalized for measles across 19 Italian hospitals (Jan 2016 - Aug 2017).
- Analysis included demographic data, complications, genotypes, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels.
- Multivariable analysis identified predictors of severe outcomes.
Main Results:
- 83% of children developed complications; 1% died.
- Pancreatitis (aOR 9.19) and encephalitis (aOR 7.02) were significantly associated with severe outcomes.
- Elevated CRP levels (>2 mg/dL) predicted higher risk of complications (OR 2.0) and severe outcomes (OR 4.13).
Conclusions:
- Severe measles risk is independent of age and underlying conditions.
- Organ complications and elevated CRP are key indicators of severe measles.
- CRP levels can serve as a predictive marker for severe measles outcomes.
Objective And Design:
Risk factors for severe measles are poorly investigated in high-income countries. The Italian Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases conducted a retrospective study in children hospitalised for measles from January 2016 to August 2017 to investigate the risk factors for severe outcome defined by the presence of long-lasting sequelae, need of intensive care or death.
Results:
Nineteen hospitals enrolled 249 children (median age 14.5 months): 207 (83%) children developed a complication and 3 (1%) died. Neutropaenia was more commonly reported in children with B3-genotype compared with other genotypes (29.5% vs 7.7%, p=0.01). Pancreatitis (adjusted OR [aOR] 9.19, p=0.01) and encephalitis (aOR 7.02, p=0.04) were related to severe outcome in multivariable analysis, as well as C reactive protein (CRP) (aOR 1.1, p=0.028), the increase of which predicted severe outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.67, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.82). CRP values >2 mg/dL were related to higher risk of complications (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.7, p=0.01) or severe outcome (OR 4.13, 95% CI 1.43 to 11.8, p<0.01).
Conclusion:
The risk of severe outcome in measles is independent of age and underlying conditions, but is related to the development of organ complications and may be predicted by CRP value.
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