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[Where does the Preston curve lead us?]

A G Golubev1

  • 1N.N.Petrov National Medical Research Center of Oncology, 68, Leningradskaya srt., Pesochnyi, St. Petersburg, 197758, Russian Federation;

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Summary

Russia shows lower life expectancy (LE) and health investment effectiveness compared to global trends. Improving per capita gross domestic product (pcGDP) and health spending alone may not increase Russian LE beyond 80 years.

Keywords:
Preston curvegross domestic producthealth care expenditureslife expectancy

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Economics
  • Comparative Analysis

Background:

  • Global life expectancy (LE) correlates with per capita gross domestic product (pcGDP) following the Preston curve.
  • Russia's (RF) health and economic indicators present a unique case for analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare Russia's life expectancy (LE) and per capita health expenditures (pcHCE) trends against global and regional data.
  • To assess the effectiveness of health investments in Russia relative to other nations.
  • To identify potential barriers to increasing Russian life expectancy.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of cross-country data on LE, pcGDP, and pcHCE from the World Bank and Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
  • Comparison of the 2015 Preston curve with Russian regional data.
  • Examination of LE vs. pcGDP and LE vs. pcHCE correlations over time (1960-2015) in Russia and selected countries.

Main Results:

  • Russian data points consistently fall below established global and regional Preston curves for LE vs. pcGDP.
  • Russia's LE vs. pcGDP and LE vs. pcHCE trends are markedly lower than those of countries with similar or even lower economic indicators.
  • The ratio of pcGDP to pcHCE remains constant across countries and time, but its impact on LE is significantly diminished in Russia.

Conclusions:

  • Investment in health resources in Russia is less effective in improving life expectancy compared to global benchmarks.
  • Simply increasing pcGDP and pcHCE may not be sufficient to achieve Russia's national LE priority of 80 years.
  • Further research is crucial to identify and address the specific factors hindering health investment effectiveness in Russia.