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The negative predictive value of preoperative urodynamics for stress urinary incontinence following prolapse surgery
Tania Sierra1, Gina Sullivan2, Katherine Leung2
1Division of Urogynecology and Reconstructive Pelvic Surgery, University of Massachusetts Medical School, 119 Belmont Street, Worcester, MA, 01605, USA. Tania.sierra@umassmemorial.org.
Introduction And Hypothesis:
There is no consensus for the evaluation of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in patients planning pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery. We sought to determine the negative predictive value (NPV) of prolapse reduction during preoperative urodynamics (UDS) for postoperative SUI.
Methods:
We performed a retrospective study of 322 women with preoperative UDS and subsequent POP surgery. Abstracted data included demographics, prolapse stage, prior prolapse or incontinence surgery, preoperative SUI complaint, prolapse reduction method, and length of follow-up. Any woman who reported SUI symptoms within 6 months from surgery was considered a diagnostic UDS failure. The NPV was calculated by dividing the number of patients who did not demonstrate SUI on UDS and had no postoperative SUI by the number of patients who did not demonstrate SUI on UDS.
Results:
Patient characteristics (age, race, parity, prolapse stage, prior surgery, and length of follow-up) were similar among those who had urodynamic-proven SUI and those who did not. The NPV of preoperative UDS for postoperative SUI in patients undergoing any POP repair was 97.9.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 92.7-99.7%]. The NPV remained high in the subset of patients who underwent an apical suspension-98.6% (95% CI 92.7-100.0%)-as well as those without a preoperative SUI complaint-98.6% (95% CI 92.3-100.0%). In most patients (72.9%), a ring pessary with support combined with intraprocedural manipulation allowed for reliable stress testing.
Conclusions:
Our study supports using preoperative UDS as a screening tool to avoid unnecessary concomitant continence procedures. Further studies are needed to individualize patient preoperative assessment and surgical counseling.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.

