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A New Method for Inducing a Depression-Like Behavior in Rats

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Intervention on default contagion under partial information in a financial network.

¹Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America.

|January 16, 2019

Summary

Regulators can minimize bank defaults by strategically intervening in the interbank lending market. Optimal intervention focuses on systematically important banks to manage contagion risk effectively.

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Area of Science:

Financial stability
Systemic risk management
Network economics

Background:

Interbank lending markets are crucial for financial system liquidity.
Illiquidity and default can spread rapidly through contagion.
Regulators face challenges with partial information on network connections.

Purpose of the Study:

To determine optimal regulatory interventions to mitigate default contagion.
To analyze the impact of interventions on market stability.
To develop an analytical framework for intervention policy in heterogeneous markets.

Main Methods:

Derivation of asymptotic optimal intervention policies.
Modeling heterogeneous interbank networks with arbitrary distributions.
Extension of existing contagion models to include regulatory interventions.
Simulation analysis to validate theoretical results.

Main Results:

An "monotonic" optimal intervention policy is identified based on cost, invulnerability, and connectivity.
Prioritizing interventions on systematically important or near-invulnerable banks is optimal.
Continuous intervention on a selected bank is more effective than intermittent actions.
Simulation results align well with theoretical predictions.

Conclusions:

The study provides a data-driven framework for effective regulatory intervention in interbank markets.
Optimal policies can significantly reduce systemic risk and default contagion.
Findings offer practical guidance for central banks and governments managing financial stability.