Cost-Effectiveness of Accelerated HIV Response Scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire

Despite Côte d'Ivoire epidemic being labeled as "generalized," key populations (KPs) are important to overall transmission. Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we previously estimated the impact of several treatment-as-prevention strategies that reached-or missed-the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in different populations groups, including KP and clients of female sex workers (CFSWs). To inform program planning and resources allocation, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of these scenarios.

Costing was performed from the provider's perspective. Unit costs were obtained from the Ivorian Programme national de lutte contre le Sida (USD 2015) and discounted at 3%. Net incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per adult HIV infection prevented and per disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted were estimated over 2015-2030.

The 3 most cost-effective and affordable scenarios were the ones that projected current programmatic trends [ICER = $210; 90% uncertainty interval (90% UI): $150-$300], attaining the 90-90-90 objectives among KP and CFSW (ICER = $220; 90% UI: $80-$510), and among KP only (ICER = $290; 90% UI: $90-$660). The least cost-effective scenario was the one that reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target accompanied by a 25% point drop in condom use in KP (ICER = $710; 90% UI: $450-$1270). In comparison, the UNAIDS scenario had a net ICER of $570 (90% UI: $390-$900) per DALY averted.

According to commonly used thresholds, accelerating the HIV response can be considered very cost-effective for all scenarios. However, when balancing epidemiological impact, cost-effectiveness, and affordability, scenarios that sustain both high condom use and rates of viral suppression among KP and CFSW seem most promising in Côte d'Ivoire.