Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Gerontology
• Sociology

Background:

• Traditional measures of population aging may not accurately reflect cross-country and temporal variations.
• The Sanderson and Scherbov method, using remaining life expectancy (RLE) of 15 years, is a common benchmark.
• Existing methods lack nuanced consideration of national differences in reaching advanced age.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare population aging trends in Europe and Asia using a consistent and cross-nationally comparable metric.
• To propose an adjusted old-age threshold measure accounting for national variations in life expectancy.
• To analyze geographical diversity in population aging shares.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Sanderson and Scherbov's remaining life expectancy (RLE) of 15 years as a baseline.
• Developed an adjusted old-age threshold by incorporating cross-national differences in the 'exceptionality' of reaching the RLE15 age.
• Compared aging estimates derived from the adjusted method with the standard RLE15 method.

Main Results:

• The adjusted old-age threshold was below 65 years in 2012 for populations in Central, Southern, and Southeastern Asia, and many Eastern European countries.
• Populations measured with the adjusted method showed a higher share of elderly compared to the standard RLE15 method.
• The adjusted measure highlighted greater geographical diversity in the proportions of elderly individuals across regions.

Conclusions:

• The adjusted prospective and comparative measure indicates higher population aging in most Asian and Eastern European countries.
• The refined method reveals more significant geographical diversity in population aging than previously estimated.
• This adjusted approach offers a more accurate assessment of population aging for international comparisons.