Deep Learning-Based Survival Analysis Identified Associations Between Molecular Subtype and Optimal Adjuvant...

Gastric cancer (GC) is the third-leading cause of cancer-related deaths. Several pivotal clinical trials of adjuvant treatments were performed during the previous decade; however, the optimal regimen for adjuvant treatment of GC remains controversial.

We developed a novel deep learning-based survival model (survival recurrent network [SRN]) in patients with GC by including all available clinical and pathologic data and treatment regimens. This model uses time-sequential data only in the training step, and upon being trained, it receives the initial data from the first visit and then sequentially predicts the outcome at each time point until it reaches 5 years. In total, 1,190 patients from three cohorts (the Asian Cancer Research Group cohort, n = 300; the fluorouracil, leucovorin, and radiotherapy cohort, n = 432; and the Adjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy in Stomach Cancer cohort, n = 458) were included in the analysis. In addition, we added Asian Cancer Research Group molecular classifications into the prediction model. SRN simulated the sequential learning process of clinicians in the outpatient clinic using a recurrent neural network and time-sequential outcome data.

The mean area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.92 ± 0.049 at the fifth year. The SRN demonstrated that GC with a mesenchymal subtype should elicit a more risk-adapted postoperative treatment strategy as a result of its high recurrence rate. In addition, the SRN found that GCs with microsatellite instability and GCs of the papillary type exhibited significantly more favorable survival outcomes after capecitabine plus cisplatin chemotherapy alone.

Our SRN predicted survival at a high rate, reaching 92% at postoperative year 5. Our findings suggest that SRN-based clinical trials or risk-adapted adjuvant trials could be considered for patients with GC to investigate more individualized adjuvant treatments after curative gastrectomy.