Realizing low-carbon development in a developing and industrializing region: Impacts of industrial structure change...

China is undergoing rapid industrial structure change, resulting in great disparities in industrialization stages and CO₂ emission patterns across regions. In this study, we focused on the southwest economic zone (including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou), which is in the middle-industrialization stage and aims to mitigate CO₂ emissions during strategic industrial transformation. We applied a framework with refined indicators based on input-output analysis (IOA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to characterize and quantify the impact of industrial structure change on CO₂ emissions during 2002-2012. In this period, construction ranked first in CO₂ emission due to relatively high-carbon production structure and increasing share in final demand, which increased construction related CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, we found that diversification in development and competitive industries had different impacts on CO₂ emission trends. Yunnan and Guizhou experienced a transition from light manufacturing to resource-related manufacturing; therefore, CO₂ emissions in resource-related manufacturing showed an increasing trend due to the extensive production structure in the two provinces, while it showed a decreasing trend in the other three provinces. Moreover, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guangxi showed an apparent expansion trend in machinery manufacturing and related CO₂ emissions, driven by investment, final demand structure, and production structure changes. Meanwhile, this zone avoided large-scale CO₂ emissions in these sectors through net imports, by making good use of geographical advantages and trade structure. The CO₂ emissions of the service sectors showed increasing trends due to increasing proportions in consumption structure and final demand structure. Furthermore, this led to a transition from consumer services to producer services with expansion. Among the five provinces, Chongqing had the lowest-carbon development pattern, owing to its higher technical levels of manufacturing and relatively lower-carbon production structure, which could be a reference point for rapid low-carbon economic development under middle industrialization for the other provinces or regions with the similar industrial characteristics.