[Analysis of 20-year survival rate and prognostic indicators of systemic lupus erythematosus]

Objective: To analyze the 20-year survival rate, causes of death and predictors of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 217 newly SLE patients who were diagnosed and treated by Peking University People's Hospital before June 2008. The clinical features and serologic data were studied. Survival rate of SLE patients over time, living conditions, causes of death and prognostic indicators of mortality were studied. Results: The 10-, 15-and 20-year cumulative survival rate was 90.3%,88.1%and 79.6%, respectively. Infection and lupus encephalopathy were the main causes of death. Cox regression analysis revealed that lupus nephritis, neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus and age at the diagnosis were independent risk determinants for mortality. Conclusion: Prognosis of SLE remains to be improved. Early diagnosis, control of SLE organ damage and infection prevention are critical to improve survival of SLE patients.