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The rationality of illusory correlation.

Fintan Costello1, Paul Watts2

  • 1School of Computer Science, University College Dublin.

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People often mistakenly link rare features with minority groups and frequent features with majority groups. This study reveals this "illusory correlation" is actually a rational inference based on epistemic probability theory.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Cognition
  • Epistemic Probability Theory

Background:

  • Illusory correlation describes the tendency to associate rare features with minority groups and frequent features with majority groups.
  • This association pattern is traditionally considered an irrational cognitive bias.
  • Existing research assumes these correlations are fundamentally flawed judgments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To challenge the assumption that illusory correlation is irrational.
  • To demonstrate that associating rare features with minority groups and frequent features with majority groups is a correct inference.
  • To introduce a new computational model for frequency-based illusory correlation.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of association patterns between features and population samples (minority vs. majority).
  • Application of epistemic probability theory, specifically the Rule of Succession.
  • Development of a computational model based on the Rule of Succession to explain frequency-based illusory correlation.

Main Results:

  • The study demonstrates that the observed pattern of illusory correlation is mathematically sound.
  • This pattern correctly follows the principles of the Rule of Succession from epistemic probability theory.
  • A novel computational model accurately reflects frequency-based illusory correlation.

Conclusions:

  • The common pattern of illusory correlation is not an irrational bias but a rational inference.
  • The Rule of Succession provides a theoretical basis for understanding this cognitive phenomenon.
  • Findings have implications for understanding other cognitive biases and social perception.