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Concreting at elevated temperatures accelerates the hydration process, leading to quicker setting but potentially reducing the long-term strength of the concrete structure. Additionally, low air humidity fosters rapid moisture loss from the concrete, resulting in reduced workability, pronounced plastic shrinkage, and a higher likelihood of crazing.
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Escalating Threat of Wheat Stripe Rust Under Climate Change: Pathogen Evolution, Resistance Durability, and Future Management.

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A Threshold-Based Weather Model for Predicting Stripe Rust Infection in Winter Wheat.

Moussa El Jarroudi1, Louis Kouadio2, Clive H Bock3

  • 1Department of Environmental Sciences and Management, Université de Liège, Arlon, B-6700 Belgium.

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A new weather model predicts wheat stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici) epidemics. It identifies optimal conditions like high humidity and specific temperatures, aiding fungicide application timing.

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Area of Science:

  • Plant Pathology
  • Agricultural Meteorology
  • Crop Science

Background:

  • Wheat stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, poses a significant global threat to wheat production.
  • Favorable environmental conditions can lead to substantial yield losses in wheat crops due to stripe rust infections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a threshold-based weather model for predicting wheat stripe rust epidemics.
  • To identify critical weather variables and their optimal ranges for wheat stripe rust development.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized meteorological data from 1999-2015 across three Luxembourg wheat-growing sites.
  • Employed Monte Carlo simulations to characterize favorable weather conditions using the Dennis model.
  • Developed a predictive model based on optimal combinations of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall during the May-June infection period.

Main Results:

  • Identified optimal conditions for stripe rust development: relative humidity >92%, 4°C < temperature < 16°C for ≥4 continuous hours, and rainfall ≤0.1 mm.
  • The model achieved high prediction accuracy with probabilities of detection ≥0.90 and false alarm ratios ≤0.38.
  • Critical success indexes ranged from 0.63 to 1, indicating robust predictive performance.

Conclusions:

  • The developed threshold-based weather model accurately predicts wheat stripe rust infection events.
  • This model can be integrated into operational warning systems to guide timely fungicide applications.
  • The methodology shows potential for application to other fungal diseases and geographical locations.