Dynamics of geologic CO₂ storage and plume motion revealed by seismic coda waves

Quantifying the dynamics of sequestered CO₂ plumes is critical for safe long-term storage, providing guidance on plume extent, and detecting stratigraphic seal failure. However, existing seismic monitoring methods based on wave reflection or transmission probe a limited rock volume and their sensitivity decreases as CO₂ saturation increases, decreasing their utility in quantitative plume mass estimation. Here we show that seismic scattering coda waves, acquired during continuous borehole monitoring, are able to illuminate details of the CO₂ plume during a 74-h CO₂ injection experiment at the Frio-II well Dayton, TX. Our study reveals a continuous velocity reduction during the dynamic injection of CO₂, a result that augments and dramatically improves upon prior analyses based on P-wave arrival times. We show that velocity reduction is nonlinearly correlated with the injected cumulative CO₂ mass and attribute this correlation to the fact that coda waves repeatedly sample the heterogeneous distribution of cumulative CO₂ in the reservoir zone. Lastly, because our approach does not depend on P-wave arrival times or require well-constrained wave reflections it can be used with many source-receiver geometries including those external to the reservoir, which reduces the risk introduced by in-reservoir monitoring wells. Our results provide an approach for quantitative CO₂ monitoring and plume evolution that increases safety and long-term planning for CO₂ injection and storage.