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Positively interacting strains that co-circulate within a network structured population induce cycling epidemics of

Xu-Sheng Zhang1,2, Hongxin Zhao3, Emilia Vynnycky3,4

  • 1Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, London, UK. xu-sheng.zhang@phe.gov.uk.

Scientific Reports
|January 26, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) epidemics show cyclical patterns and strain changes. A network model reveals that co-circulating MP strains interacting within structured populations drive these recurrent epidemic cycles.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling
  • Microbiology

Background:

  • Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) causes significant community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults and children.
  • MP epidemics exhibit 3-7 year cycles with alternating dominant strains, but the mechanism is unclear.
  • Traditional models overlook population contact structures and co-circulating MP strains.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the mechanisms behind recurrent Mycoplasma pneumoniae epidemic cycles and dominant strain alternation.
  • To explore the interconnectedness of MP serotype shifts and incidence cycling.
  • To propose and test a novel network transmission model for MP dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a network transmission model incorporating structured contact patterns.
  • Simulated the transmission of two interacting Mycoplasma pneumoniae strains within a network population.
  • Analyzed model outputs to identify conditions generating epidemic cycling and strain replacement.

Main Results:

  • The model demonstrates that co-circulating strains positively interacting within a network structure can generate recurrent MP epidemics.
  • Positive interactions between strains are crucial for producing the observed epidemic periodicity.
  • The model successfully replicates the cyclical incidence patterns and serotype shifts characteristic of MP epidemics.

Conclusions:

  • Co-circulation and positive interactions of multiple Mycoplasma pneumoniae strains within structured populations provide a mechanism for epidemic cycling.
  • This finding offers a potential explanation for the observed recurrent epidemics and dominant strain alternation.
  • The model's insights can inform future vaccine design, evaluation, and monitoring strategies for MP.

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