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The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
Qiang Yang1,2, Mike S Fowler3, Andrew L Jackson1
1Department of Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
|January 31, 2019
Summary
Environmental stochasticity, or random variation, significantly impacts ecosystem stability. Changes in environmental noise color create trade-offs, affecting food web resilience and predictability.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Systems Biology
Background:
- Environmental stochasticity is crucial for ecological dynamics.
- Its role in community variability and persistence is understood, but its impact on responses to perturbations is less clear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how the temporal autocorrelation (color) of environmental noise influences ecological stability and predictability.
- To understand the trade-offs in ecological stability across diverse food-web structures.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of ecological stability dimensions under varying temporal autocorrelation of environmental noise.
- Modeling of food-web responses to perturbations with different noise characteristics.
Main Results:
- Shifts in environmental noise color induce trade-offs in ecological stability.
- Increased positive autocorrelation (reddening) enhances resilience but reduces resistance and biomass stability.
- Reddening also decreases the predictability of all stability dimensions.
Conclusions:
- Environmental noise color is a dominant factor shaping ecosystem stability, often more so than food-web structure.
- Findings highlight the complex interplay between environmental stochasticity and ecosystem dynamics, extending beyond simple white noise assumptions.
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