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Published on: February 28, 2012
Prediction of mortality in patients with implantable defibrillator using CHADS2 score: data from a prospective
Giovanni Morani1, Domenico Facchin2, Giulio Molon3
1Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Integrata Verona, University of Verona Verona, Italy.
Insights
The CHADS2 score effectively predicts mortality risk in patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators, regardless of atrial fibrillation history. Higher CHADS2 scores indicate increased risk of all-cause mortality.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Clinical Risk Stratification
- Public Health
Background:
- The CHADS2 score is validated for predicting stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients.
- This study investigates the CHADS2 score's utility in predicting all-cause mortality.
- Patient risk factors, particularly the CHADS2 score, are assessed for mortality risk identification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the CHADS2 score as a predictor of all-cause mortality.
- To assess the association between CHADS2 score-defined risk categories and long-term mortality.
- To determine if CHADS2 score predicts mortality independently of AF history.
Main Methods:
- Prospective follow-up of 821 patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators across 11 centers.
- Patients categorized into low (CHADS2=0), moderate (CHADS2=1-2), and high (CHADS2=3-6) risk groups.
- Mortality data collected via medical records and vital statistics, with survival analysis performed.
Main Results:
- A total of 135 deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 44 months.
- Mortality rates were significantly higher in high-risk (24.6%) compared to moderate (13.8%) and low-risk (7.7%) groups.
- High CHADS2 score was an independent predictor of mortality (HR 1.88, P=0.002), even in patients without AF history.
Conclusions:
- The CHADS2 score is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators.
- Long-term mortality risk increases with higher CHADS2 scores, irrespective of atrial fibrillation presence.
- The CHADS2 score aids in identifying high-risk individuals for mortality, supporting its clinical utility.
Background:
CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke/TIA) score has been validated as a risk stratification score to predict stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The objective of this analysis was to assess whether patient risk factors, in particular CHADS2 score, identified patients at risk of mortality.
Methods:
821 patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator were prospectively followed-up in 11 cardiology centers. Patients were grouped in 3 groups according to pre-specified risk classes: low (CHADS2 = 0), moderate (CHADS2 = 1, 2), and high (CHADS2 = 3-6). Information on clinical status and events, were collected during scheduled and unscheduled follow-up visits. Deaths were retrieved from medical records, or through the Regional Office of Vital Statistics.
Results:
Over a mean follow-up of 44±26 months, 135 deaths occurred in the overall population: 6 (7.7%) in the low-risk population, 69 (13.8%) in moderate-risk patients and 60 (24.6%) in high-risk patients. Kaplan-Meier estimated of patient survival were significantly different in 3 patients groups (93.0%, 90.1%, 78.5% in low, moderate and high risk patients respectively, at 4 years P<0.001). A sub-analysis on patients without history of AF showed similar results. Multivariate regression analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics confirmed the high risk status (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.27-2.80; P = 0.002) as an independent predictor of mortality adjusted for the baseline characteristics.
Conclusions:
In our multicenter research, the long-term mortality was higher in patients with high CHADS2 score than in those with lower risk score regardless the presence of history of AF. CHADS2 score could be considered a toll to predict all causes mortality.
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