Delimitation of groundwater zones under contamination risk using a bagged ensemble of optimized DRASTIC frameworks

Developing a reliable groundwater vulnerability and contamination risk map is very important for groundwater management and protection. This study aims to compare various modified DRASTIC vulnerability frameworks based on rate calibration using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test (WRST), frequency ratio (FR) and weight optimization using the correlation coefficient (CC), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and genetic algorithms (GA), as well as to introduce, for the first time, an aggregated approach based on a bagging ensemble to develop a combined modified DRASTIC model. This research was conducted in the Khoy plain, NW Iran. To develop a typical DRASTIC map, seven DRASTIC data layers were generated, weighted, and then overlaid in ArcGIS. The nitrate (NO₃) concentrations at 54 sites in the study area were used to validate the models by calculating the correlation coefficient (r) between the vulnerability/risk indices and NO₃ concentrations. The calculated r value for the typical DRASTIC was 0.12. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the impact of the vadose zone and conductivity parameters with mean variation indices of 22.2 and 7.5%, respectively, have the highest and lowest influence on aquifer vulnerability. The r values increased for all the optimized frameworks. The results show that the WRST and GA methods are the most effective methods for calibration and optimization of DRASTIC rates and weights, with the WRST-GA-DRASTIC model obtaining an r value of 0.64. A bagging ensemble model was employed to combine the advantages of each standalone model. The bagging ensemble model yields an r value of 0.67. The ensemble model has the potential to increase the r value further than both the standalone optimized frameworks and the typical DRASTIC approach. In terms of spatial distribution class area (%), the bagging ensemble-DRASTIC model demonstrates that the moderate and low contamination risk classes with 16.4 and 23.1% of the total area cover the lowest and highest parts of the plain.