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Will the Real Physician Retirees Please Stand Up?

Lindsay Hedden1, M Ruth Lavergne2, Kimberlyn M McGrail3

  • 1Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Evaluation, Research Pavilion, Vancouver General Hospital, Vancouver, BC.

Healthcare Policy = Politiques De Sante
|February 3, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Physician workforce estimates using practice licenses are unreliable for tracking retirement. Activity-based data provide more accurate measures of physician supply and retirement timing for health workforce planning.

Area of Science:

  • Health Services Research
  • Medical Workforce Analysis
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Policy makers and health workforce planners utilize physician practice license counts to estimate the active physician workforce.
  • Accurate data on physician supply and retirement are crucial for effective health system planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare physician retirement estimates derived from licensure data versus physician payment data.
  • To evaluate the reliability of practice licensure data for assessing physician workforce dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • A population-based approach was employed to correlate retirement estimates from licensure data with those from physician payment data.
  • Analysis focused on physician supply and retirement patterns in British Columbia.

Main Results:

  • Licensure data produced substantially higher per-capita physician supply estimates compared to activity-based (payment) data.
  • Discrepancies suggest licensure data do not accurately reflect active clinical practice or retirement timing.

Conclusions:

  • Practice licensure data are unreliable for estimating the timing and extent of physician retirement.
  • Health workforce planners should not rely solely on licensure data for current or future physician supply estimations.
  • Activity-based data sources offer more dependable insights into physician workforce dynamics.

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