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Will the Real Physician Retirees Please Stand Up?
Lindsay Hedden1, M Ruth Lavergne2, Kimberlyn M McGrail3
1Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Evaluation, Research Pavilion, Vancouver General Hospital, Vancouver, BC.
Healthcare Policy = Politiques De Sante
|February 3, 2019
Summary
Physician workforce estimates using practice licenses are unreliable for tracking retirement. Activity-based data provide more accurate measures of physician supply and retirement timing for health workforce planning.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Medical Workforce Analysis
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Policy makers and health workforce planners utilize physician practice license counts to estimate the active physician workforce.
- Accurate data on physician supply and retirement are crucial for effective health system planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare physician retirement estimates derived from licensure data versus physician payment data.
- To evaluate the reliability of practice licensure data for assessing physician workforce dynamics.
Main Methods:
- A population-based approach was employed to correlate retirement estimates from licensure data with those from physician payment data.
- Analysis focused on physician supply and retirement patterns in British Columbia.
Main Results:
- Licensure data produced substantially higher per-capita physician supply estimates compared to activity-based (payment) data.
- Discrepancies suggest licensure data do not accurately reflect active clinical practice or retirement timing.
Conclusions:
- Practice licensure data are unreliable for estimating the timing and extent of physician retirement.
- Health workforce planners should not rely solely on licensure data for current or future physician supply estimations.
- Activity-based data sources offer more dependable insights into physician workforce dynamics.
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