6-year change in resting heart rate is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the association of change in RHR (ΔRHR) and incident T2DM is not fully elucidated. We aimed to assess the dose-response association between 6-year ΔRHR and T2DM.

A total of 12155 non-T2DM participants ≥18 years old were enrolled during 2007-2008 and followed up during 2013-2014. ΔRHR was calculated by subtracting the baseline RHR from the RHR value at 6-year follow-up. Age-, sex-, and RHR-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the effect of ΔRHR on incident T2DM were calculated by using modified Poisson regression models. As compared with ΔRHR of 0 beats/min, the adjusted risk of T2DM was significantly increased with RHR increment and reduced with RHR reduction. ΔRHR was positively associated with future risk of T2DM [RR per unit increase: 1.03 (1.03-1.04)]. As compared with stable change in RHR group (-5<ΔRHR<5 beats/min), for ΔRHR ≤ -10 beats/min, -10<ΔRHR ≤ -5 beats/min, 5≤ΔRHR<10 beats/min, and ΔRHR ≥10 beats/min groups, the pooled adjusted RR (95% CI) of T2DM was 0.69 (0.55-0.86), 0.90 (0.73-1.11), 1.31 (1.07-1.61), and 1.90 (1.59-2.26), respectively. This significant association still existed on subgroup analyses based on age, sex, and baseline RHR and sensitivity analyses.

Dynamic RHR change was significantly associated with incident T2DM. Our study suggests that RHR may be a non-invasive clinical indicator for interventions aiming to reduce incident T2DM in the general population.