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Metapopulation Model from Pathogen's Perspective: A Versatile Framework to Quantify Pathogen Transfer and Circulation
Shi Chen1, Cristina Lanzas2, Chihoon Lee3
1Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, 28223, USA. schen56@uncc.edu.
Scientific Reports
|February 10, 2019
Summary
Metapopulation models unify host, pathogen, and environment to track pathogen transfer. This framework quantifies environmental pathogen spread and evaluates control strategies for healthcare-associated infections (HAIs).
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Environmental Health
Background:
- Metapopulation models are crucial for understanding host movements and contacts in infectious disease epidemiology.
- These models have the potential to analyze pathogen transfer within the environment.
- Unifying host, pathogen, and environment is fundamental to epidemiology (the epidemiological triad).
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate metapopulation models as an ideal framework for characterizing and quantifying pathogen transfer between hosts and the environment.
- To develop a generalized, customizable model for pathogen transfer dynamics.
- To analyze pathogen circulation and evaluate control strategies for healthcare-associated infections (HAIs).
Main Methods:
- Development of a generalized pathogen-transferring metapopulation model.
- Analysis of three case studies: pure pathogen transfer, source-sink dynamics, and disinfection-based control.
- Mathematical derivation of system equilibria for quantifying pathogen distribution.
Main Results:
- Pathogen circulation between environmental and host compartments was demonstrated.
- Complete pathogen eradication is achievable through source-sink dynamics and disinfection.
- The rate of convergence to system equilibria varies with model parameterization.
Conclusions:
- Metapopulation models effectively unify host, pathogen, and environmental factors for studying disease transmission.
- The developed model provides a quantitative framework for analyzing pathogen dynamics and control.
- Future extensions can incorporate host-to-host transmission and within-host pathogen dynamics.
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