Subjective Survival Expectations and Observed Survival: How Consistent Are They?

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Health Economics
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Understanding individual survival expectations is crucial for decision-making.
• Previous research has explored factors influencing survival outlooks, but gaps remain in modeling subjective expectations.
• The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) provides rich longitudinal data for this analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop new models for converting subjective expectations into conditional survival functions.
• To estimate the impact of individual characteristics on survival expectations.
• To assess how health shocks update these subjective expectations.

Main Methods:

• Utilized new models to transform individual responses into conditional survival functions.
• Employed Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data spanning 1992-2006.
• Analyzed effects of demographics, health shocks, and cohort differences on survival expectations.

Main Results:

• Subjective survival probabilities closely align with empirical life tables.
• Whites and women tend to underestimate survival chances more than blacks and men, respectively.
• Underestimation of survival increases with age across all subgroups.
• Significant differences observed between HRS cohorts (1992 vs. 2004) persist after controls.
• Mortality differentials for smoking, obesity, and education align with subjective expectations.
• Recent health shocks substantially update subjective survival expectations.

Conclusions:

• New models effectively translate subjective expectations into survival functions.
• Individual characteristics and health events play a significant role in shaping survival outlooks.
• Findings highlight the accuracy of subjective survival estimates and identify demographic disparities.