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Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event
Assaf Anyamba1,2, Jean-Paul Chretien3,4, Seth C Britch5
1Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA. assaf.anyamba@nasa.gov.
Scientific Reports
|February 15, 2019
Summary
El Niño events amplify disease outbreaks globally by altering climate patterns. Satellite monitoring can predict high-risk regions for disease emergence, enabling prevention.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Epidemiology
- Climate science
Background:
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes global climate variability.
- Climate anomalies are linked to outbreaks of diseases like cholera, plague, dengue, and Zika.
- Previous research suggests a connection between ENSO and disease emergence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze disease outbreak patterns during the 2015-2016 El Niño event.
- To correlate disease outbreaks with climate anomalies using satellite data.
- To assess the impact of ENSO on disease activity intensity.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of disease outbreak data from El Niño-connected regions.
- Utilized satellite measurements to derive climate anomalies (rainfall, temperature, vegetation).
- Statistical analysis to determine significant associations between climate variables and disease outbreaks.
Main Results:
- Disease outbreaks in Southeast Asia, Tanzania, US, and Brazil coincided with extreme rainfall and temperature shifts.
- Disease activity intensity was 2.5-28% higher in ENSO-teleconnected regions during El Niño years.
- Plague and cholera linked to increased rainfall; dengue associated with higher land surface temperatures.
Conclusions:
- Climate anomalies driven by ENSO create favorable conditions for pathogen and vector propagation.
- Satellite monitoring of climate variables can identify regions at risk for disease outbreaks.
- Early warning systems based on climate data can aid in disease prevention and reduce public health burden.
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