Predicting continence decline in institutionalized older people: A longitudinal analysis

To verify the incidence of urinary continence decline and the probability of maintaining urinary continence, as well as identify the prognostic factors of urinary continence decline in institutionalized older people.

A 2-year longitudinal study (with five 6-month waves) was conducted with subjects ≥60 years old who lived in 10 nursing homes in the city of Natal-RN (Brazil). Urinary incontinence was assessed by the Minimum Data Set version 3.0. Sociodemographic, institution-related and health-related variables were considered to establish the baseline. Time-dependent variables included cognitive decline, functional decline, and incidences of falls, hospitalizations, and fractures during the period. The actuarial method, the log-rank test, and Cox's regression were applied as statistical methods.

Among the cohort of 196 older adults, 105 (53.6%) individuals maintained the continence status during the period, 21 (10.7%) improved it at one or more assessments, and 76 (38.8%) subjects declined. The cumulative probability of maintaining continence status was 82.6% (confidence interval [CI], 95%: 76.5%-87.3%), 74.7% (CI, 95%: 67.8%-80.4%), 66.9% (CI, 95%: 59.4%-73.2%), and 49.3% (CI, 95%: 40.1%-57.9%) at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months, respectively. Predicting factors for continence decline were: disability (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.03; P < 0.001), functional decline (HR = 3.02; P = 0.001) and potentially inappropriate medication (HR = 1.84; P = 0.008).

The incidence of continence decline and the cumulative probability of maintaining continence status in institutionalized older adults was approximately 39% and 49%, respectively, at the 2-year follow-up. Disability and potentially inappropriate drugs at baseline and functional decline across the period predicted continence decline in this cohort.