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Predictor variables for post-discharge mortality modelling in infants: a protocol development project

Brooklyn R Nemetchek1, Li Danny Liang2, Niranjan Kissoon3,4,5

  • 1College of Nursing, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada.

African Health Sciences
|February 16, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Identifying infant mortality predictors is crucial for developing countries. This study identified 55 candidate variables to predict post-discharge infant deaths, aiding targeted interventions.

Area of Science:

  • Global Health
  • Pediatric Mortality
  • Clinical Prediction Models

Background:

  • Over two-thirds of annual deaths in children under five occur in infants, predominantly in developing nations.
  • A significant portion of infant deaths happen post-hospital discharge, highlighting a critical gap in care.
  • Early identification of high-risk infants is essential for effective intervention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify potential predictor variables for post-discharge mortality in infants under one year of age.
  • Focus on infants discharged from health facilities in developing countries.
  • Establish early clinical predictors for vulnerable infants.

Main Methods:

  • A two-round modified Delphi process involving expert panel evaluation.
  • Variables were selected from a systematic literature review.
  • Evaluation criteria included predictive value, reliability, availability, and applicability in low-resource settings.

Main Results:

  • The first round involved 18 experts evaluating 37 variables and suggesting 26 more.
  • The second round included 17 experts evaluating 27 variables.
  • A final set of 55 candidate predictor variables was retained.

Conclusions:

  • A systematic approach successfully identified 55 candidate predictor variables.
  • These variables can be used to develop predictive models for infant post-discharge mortality.
  • The findings are particularly relevant for low-resource settings.
Abstract

Keywords:
Candidate predictor variablesinfantsneonatalpediatricspost-discharge mortalitypredictionsepsis

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