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Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Luis Lassaletta1, Fernando Estellés2, Arthur H W Beusen3
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands; CEIGRAM/Department of Agricultural Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid 28040, Spain.
The Science of the Total Environment
|February 22, 2019
Summary
Global pork production has doubled feed demand and nitrogen excretion over 35 years. Future sustainability requires efficiency gains, alternative feeds, reduced protein, better manure management, and moderated consumption.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Animal Science
Background:
- Global pork production has quadrupled in 50 years, with continued growth projected.
- This expansion has significant implications for feed utilization, land use, and nitrogen emissions.
- Understanding historical trends is crucial for projecting future impacts and developing sustainable practices.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the development of global pig production systems over recent decades.
- To model changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), and nitrogen excretion.
- To explore future scenarios for pig production sustainability up to 2050.
Main Methods:
- Development of the IMAGE-Pig model to simulate regional pig production systems (backyard, intermediate, intensive).
- Defined total production, productive characteristics, and dietary compositions for 1970-2005.
- Utilized Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to inform future scenario modeling.
Main Results:
- Total feed demand doubled from 229 to 471 Tg DM between 1970-2005, despite FCR improvements.
- Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) improvements lagged behind FCR gains due to increased feed protein content.
- Total nitrogen (N) excretion more than doubled, from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year during the same period.
Conclusions:
- Historical growth in pork production has led to substantial increases in feed demand and nitrogen excretion.
- Future sustainability hinges on efficiency improvements, alternative feed sources, reduced dietary protein, integrated crop-livestock systems, and moderated consumption.
- Balancing production growth with environmental impact requires a multi-faceted approach considering technological, dietary, and consumption patterns.
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