Computational modelling of resistance and associated treatment response heterogeneity in metastatic cancers

Metastatic cancer patients invariably develop treatment resistance. Different levels of resistance lead to observed heterogeneity in treatment response. The main goal was to evaluate treatment response heterogeneity with a computation model simulating the dynamics of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant cells. Model parameters included proliferation, drug-induced death, transition and proportion of intrinsically resistant cells. The model was benchmarked with imaging metrics extracted from 39 metastatic prostate cancer patients who had ¹⁸F-NaF-PET/CT scans performed at baseline and at three cycles into chemotherapy or hormonal therapy. Two initial model assumptions were evaluated: considering only inter-patient heterogeneity and both inter-patient and intra-patient heterogeneity in the proportion of intrinsically resistant cells. The correlation between the median proportion of intrinsically resistant cells and baseline patient-level imaging metrics was assessed with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. The impact of model parameters on simulated treatment response was evaluated with a sensitivity study. Treatment response after periods of six, nine, and 12 months was predicted with the model. The median predicted range of response for patients treated with both therapies was compared with a Wilcoxon rank sum test. For each patient, the time was calculated when the proportion of disease with a non-favourable response outperformed a favourable response. By taking into account inter-patient and intra-patient heterogeneity in the proportion of intrinsically resistant cells, the model performed significantly better ([Formula: see text]) than by taking into account only inter-patient heterogeneity ([Formula: see text]). The median proportion of intrinsically resistant cells showed a moderate correlation (ρ  =  0.55) with mean patient-level uptake, and a low correlation (ρ  =  0.36) with the dispersion of mean metastasis-level uptake in a patient. The sensitivity study showed a strong impact of the proportion of intrinsically resistant cells on model behaviour after three cycles of therapy. The difference in the median range of response (MRR) was not significant between cohorts at any time point (p   >  0.15). The median time when the proportion of disease with a non-favourable response outperformed the favourable response was eight months, for both cohorts. The model provides an insight into inter-patient and intra-patient heterogeneity in the evolution of treatment resistance.