S-CAP extends pathogenicity prediction to genetic variants that affect RNA splicing

Exome analysis of patients with a likely monogenic disease does not identify a causal variant in over half of cases. Splice-disrupting mutations make up the second largest class of known disease-causing mutations. Each individual (singleton) exome harbors over 500 rare variants of unknown significance (VUS) in the splicing region. The existing relevant pathogenicity prediction tools tackle all non-coding variants as one amorphic class and/or are not calibrated for the high sensitivity required for clinical use. Here we calibrate seven such tools and devise a novel tool called Splicing Clinically Applicable Pathogenicity prediction (S-CAP) that is over twice as powerful as all previous tools, removing 41% of patient VUS at 95% sensitivity. We show that S-CAP does this by using its own features and not via meta-prediction over previous tools, and that splicing pathogenicity prediction is distinct from predicting molecular splicing changes. S-CAP is an important step on the path to deriving non-coding causal diagnoses.