Modeling residential coastal flood vulnerability using finished-floor elevations and socio-economic characteristics

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Social Science

Background:

• Coastal regions are increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts, particularly flooding.
• Existing vulnerability models at county scales limit effective community-level adaptation planning.
• Understanding the intersection of social vulnerability and physical flood risk is critical for coastal resilience.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply an integrated social and physical model of flood vulnerability at the block-group level.
• To identify areas with high social vulnerability and physical exposure to inundation in coastal North Carolina.
• To provide high-resolution data for targeted hazard mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Integrated social and physical vulnerability model at the block-group level.
• Utilized census data for social vulnerability assessment (population and housing).
• Assessed physical exposure by intersecting building floor elevations with flood hazard maps.

Main Results:

• Identified spatially explicit areas of high social vulnerability and flood exposure.
• Found 45.3% of structures in the 100-year floodplain were structurally exposed to inundation.
• Observed clustering of vulnerable areas in Albemarle and Eastern Carolina, with notable outliers.

Conclusions:

• High-resolution, block-group level analysis reveals nuanced vulnerability patterns below the county scale.
• Findings provide essential data for effective hazard mitigation across various governance levels.
• The integrated model supports community-scale adaptation planning for climate change resilience.