Usefulness Criterion and Post-selection Parental Contributions in Multi-parental Crosses: Application to Polygenic...

Predicting the usefulness of crosses in terms of expected genetic gain and genetic diversity is of interest to secure performance in the progeny and to maintain long-term genetic gain in plant breeding. A wide range of crossing schemes are possible including large biparental crosses, backcrosses, four-way crosses, and synthetic populations. In silico progeny simulations together with genome-based prediction of quantitative traits can be used to guide mating decisions. However, the large number of multi-parental combinations can hinder the use of simulations in practice. Analytical solutions have been proposed recently to predict the distribution of a quantitative trait in the progeny of biparental crosses using information of recombination frequency and linkage disequilibrium between loci. Here, we extend this approach to obtain the progeny distribution of more complex crosses including two to four parents. Considering agronomic traits and parental genome contribution as jointly multivariate normally distributed traits, the usefulness criterion parental contribution (UCPC) enables to (i) evaluate the expected genetic gain for agronomic traits, and at the same time (ii) evaluate parental genome contributions to the selected fraction of progeny. We validate and illustrate UCPC in the context of multiple allele introgression from a donor into one or several elite recipients in maize (Zea mays L.). Recommendations regarding the interest of two-way, three-way, and backcrosses were derived depending on the donor performance. We believe that the computationally efficient UCPC approach can be useful for mate selection and allocation in many plant and animal breeding contexts.