Nomogram to Assist in Surgical Plan for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Prediction Model for Microvascular Invasion

Microvascular invasion (MVI) relates to poor survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. In this study, we aim at developing a nomogram for MVI prediction and potential assistance in surgical planning.

A total of 357 patients were assigned to training (n = 257) and validation (n = 100) cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to reveal preoperative predictors for MVI. A nomogram incorporating independent predictors was constructed and validated. Disease-free survival was compared between patients, and the potential of the predicted MVI in making surgical procedure was also explored.

Pathological examination confirmed MVI in 140 (39.2%) patients. Imaging features including larger tumor, intra-tumoral artery, tumor type, and higher serum AFP independently correlated with MVI. The nomogram showed desirable performance with an AUROC of 0.803 (95% CI, 0.746-0.860) and 0.814 (95% CI, 0.720-0.908) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Good calibration were also revealed by calibration curve in both cohorts. The decision curve analysis indicated that the prediction nomogram was of promising usefulness in clinical work. In addition, survival analysis revealed that patients with positive-predicted MVI suffered a higher risk of early recurrence (P < 0.01). There was no difference in disease-free survival between anatomic or non-anatomic resection in large HCC or small HCC without nomogram-predicted MVI. However, anatomic resection improved disease-free survival in small HCC with nomogram-predicted MVI.

The nomogram obtained desirable results in predicting MVI. Patients with predicted MVI were associated with early recurrence and anatomic resection was recommended for small HCC patients with predicted MVI.