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Selective exposure partly relies on faulty affective forecasts.

Charles A Dorison1, Julia A Minson1, Todd Rogers1

  • 1Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, United States.

Cognition
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Summary

Political partisans overestimate negative feelings from opposing views, driving selective exposure. Correcting these faulty affective forecasts reduced biased information consumption.

Keywords:
Affective forecastingEmotionFalse polarizationSelective exposure

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Political Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Selective exposure to information, driven by prior beliefs, exacerbates political polarization and poses risks to democratic processes.
  • Understanding the psychological mechanisms behind selective exposure is crucial for mitigating its negative societal impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the role of affective forecasting errors in political selective exposure.
  • To examine whether correcting these forecasting errors can reduce biased information consumption.

Main Methods:

  • Five studies with a total of 2455 participants were conducted.
  • Participants' affective forecasts regarding exposure to opposing political views were measured.
  • Information consumption choices were observed, and interventions to correct forecasting errors were implemented.

Main Results:

  • Political partisans systematically overestimated the negative affect they would experience from engaging with opposing viewpoints.
  • This affective forecasting error was linked to underestimating agreement with opponents' views.
  • Correcting biased affective forecasts led to a significant reduction (24-34%) in selective exposure.

Conclusions:

  • Faulty affective forecasts, specifically overestimating negative emotions from opposing views, are a key driver of political selective exposure.
  • Interventions that correct these biased forecasts can effectively reduce selective exposure and potentially mitigate political polarization.